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# Emissions of fossil fuel

“Problem Set #21. The Table below gives the 2006 emissions of fossil fuel CO2, in million metric tons of carbon dioxide, for the top 15 emitters, based on EIA data (http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html). Convert the data to Gt or Pg of C and rank the countries by percentage of global emissions. How do you think the percentage distributions between nations might change in the future? (hint – 2006 was the first year in which the U.S. was not in first place.) What are the principal factors that will drive the postulated changes? (note: you can copy and paste the data into Excel and do your calculations there by adding additional columns.)

China 6,017.69 United States 5,902.75 Russia 1,704.36 India 1,293.17Japan 1,246.76 Germany 857.60 Canada 614.33United Kingdom 585.71Korea, South 514.53Iran 471.48Italy 468.19South Africa 443.58Mexico 435.60Saudi Arabia 424.08France 417.75World Total 29,195.422. The formula to convert a change in atmospheric CO2 to a change in radiative forcing (?RF, in W/m2) is:?RF = 5.35 * ln(C/C0)where ?RF is the change in radiative forcing in W/m2, C is the CO2 concentration at some specific time and C0 is the CO2 concentration at the initial or baseline time (note ln = natural logarithm; exp = exponential is the inverse function of ln). Typically, C0 is taken as the pre-industrial CO2 concentration, 278 ppm.

First, calculate the increase in RF due to the increase in CO2 from pre-industrial values to the present-day concentration.

Other gases also contribute to the present-day increase in radiative forcing. Using the 2006 value for the total change in radiative forcing since the industrial revolution due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, 2.665 W/m2, calculate the CO2-equivalent (CO2e) concentration required to account for the total forcing. How does this value influence the debate about trying to hold atmospheric CO2 to a specific value? i.e., http://www.350.org/”

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